U.S. 2020 Presidential Election: No easy cures

Summary

The 2020 presidential election will be highly influenced by the health crisis, the economic recession, polarization and microtargeting. Based on polling data and in-house models, the Democrats are the odds-on-favorite to win the Presidency and the House, and could possibly flip the Senate.

Key points

• Key points:
• The result will be determined by voter turnout and the ability of the candidates to persuade the undecided in swing states.
• While the common view is that political outcomes have a significant influence on economic performance, we expect economic conditions that prevailed over the past decade to remain largely the same regardless of who wins in November.
• For most industries, structural trends and technological change are more relevant than the results of the election.
• There are a number of structural challenges that need to be addressed, including sustainability, infrastructure, automation, digitization, polarization, education, healthcare, housing, inequality, racism, immigration, R&D, and fiscal stability.
• The fundamental question is which path the U.S. will take: an inclusive and strategic vision towards exceptionalism, or one that falls victim to procrastination and polarization conducive to stagnation.

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