Published on Friday, August 30, 2019 | Updated on Thursday, September 5, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. August 2019

Models suggest 70% probability of recession within 24 months. Increased weakness in global growth. Policy uncertainty whipsawing with trade tensions. At times, key financial markets showing signs of panic-like conditions.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Fed under pressure to deliver more accommodation
  • Economic fundamentals for households remain solid


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