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Published on Friday, August 30, 2019 | Updated on Thursday, September 5, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. August 2019

Models suggest 70% probability of recession within 24 months. Increased weakness in global growth. Policy uncertainty whipsawing with trade tensions. At times, key financial markets showing signs of panic-like conditions.

Key points

Key points:
Fed under pressure to deliver more accommodation
Economic fundamentals for households remain solid

Documents to download

Presentation (PDF)

190830_US_RecessionRiskMonitor_Aug2019-1.pdf English August 30, 2019
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Presentation (PDF)

190830_EEUU_MonitorRiesgoRecesion_Ago2019.pdf Spanish August 30, 2019
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Authors

Nathaniel Karp
Boyd Nash-Stacey

Geographies

Geography Tags
Global

Topics

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