The increase in energy prices in 2021, which was exacerbated by the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has hit the German economy particularly hard, due to the importance of energy-intensive sectors and its energy dependence on Russian gas.
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GDP growth in 2022 is revised upwards (4.4%) and the outlook deteriorates in 2023 (1.0%). The economy could remain stagnant in the coming quarters, or register moderate declines, due to heightened uncertainty, higher inflation expectations and interest rates.
GDP growth in Spain is maintained at 4.1% in 2022 and revised downwards for 2023 (1.8%). The main reason is the scarcity of some raw materials and the impact of their higher prices on inflation.
GDP growth in Spain is revised downwards to 4.1% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023. The main reasons are the Ukraine's invasion, the sanctions imposed on the Russian economy and the increase in prices, especially energy related, over the last few months.
The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.
Consumer prices increased by 4.8% in February and resulted in an annual inflation of 54.4%, (prev: 48.7%). Given the deepening cost push factors, uncertainty on commodity prices and inertia, CPI would surpass 60% in 2Q and 3Q, before falling down to a level at least above 40% on positive base effects in December.
Consumer prices increased by 11.1% in January parallel to expectations and resulted in an annual inflation of 48.7% up from 36.1% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to remain around 55% in 2Q and 3Q before falling down to 35% at the end of the year, helped by the favorable base impact in December.
Growth in Spain will remain high in the 2022-2023 biennium. Pandemic control, the use of pent-up savings, accelerating NGEU funds, ECB measures and high spare capacity would offset the effects of bottlenecks and higher energy prices.