Argentina | Real-time consumption monitoring (Dec 30, 2020)

Summary

Total consumption ends 2020 with a boost given by Christmas shopping, returning to pre-pandemic levels. Official data confirms the predictive power of our real-time consumption indicator for both economic activity and supermarket consumption.

Key points

• Key points:
• After having gone through a fateful 2020, overall consumption with BBVA cards ends the year with a slight boost from Christmas shopping.
• The growth registered by expenditure on digital platforms, accommodation, fashion and leisure and entertainment stands out. On the other hand, the essential and Technology categories, which enjoyed their best moment at the beginning of the lockdown, close 2020 with a lackluster performance.
• The INDEC released the monthly economic activity data (EMAE) and the one referred to sales in supermarkets, both corresponding to October, again in line with the evolution of our fuel and supermarkets consumption indicators in real time. We predict that the 4Q20 EMAE will be around -5% YoY and that supermarket spending will remain stable.
• The "winning" items for 2020 were online shopping, fashion and construction, both in terms of pre-pandemic spending and relative share of total consumption.

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