Global | Commodities: volatility and conflicting trends

Summary

Commodity markets, like other financial markets, have been unusually volatile in the last month, largely due to the trade policy announcements by the new United States administration.

Key points

• Key points:
• For instance, oil prices fell by around 15% in a matter of days, from around 75 dollars a barrel of Brent to 65 (albeit with wide fluctuations).
• Conversely, gold in the last month has appreciated by around 8% and certain agricultural commodities reported similar gains (coffee +8% and corn +6%).
• This trend has a lot to do with the looming threat of disruptions to global trade—and the ensuing economic fallout—across most countries of the world, likely leading to more subdued trade and production, and therefore less demand for raw materials.
• The United States also happens to be pursuing a policy of unfettered expansion of raw material production, while distancing itself from global efforts to control climate change.
• In the medium to long term, we do not appear to be on the same page when it comes to finding a structural solution to the needs of the energy transition. As a result, high prices for raw materials such as gas, oil and metals are likely to persist for some time to come.

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