Global | The pulse of the oil market

Summary

2025 was marked by a downward trend in oil prices, starting the year at around $75 dollars per barrel of Brent crude and closing at $61, with a full-year average of $68.

Key points

• Key points:
• 2026 begins with a significant supply surplus that will take considerable time to stabilize, even though demand growth is expected to slightly outpace supply growth this year.
• As a result, the structural trend in oil prices remains downward for 2026. At BBVA Research, we forecast an average Brent price of $64 per barrel this year and $63 in 2027.
• Over the course of 2026, a downward trend is also expected, from average levels close to $66 in the first quarter to $62 by the end of the year.
• However, this outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly due to various geopolitical conflicts and tensions.

Geographies

Topics

Tags