Mexico | Regional Sectoral Outlook First Half 2026

Summary

Mexico’s economy grew just 0.6% in 2025. A 1.3% drop in secondary activities was partly offset by gains in the primary sector (4.2%) and services (1.5%). The report analyzes the 46.8% surge in computer and electronics exports and the 13 Economic Development Poles (Polos de Desarrollo Económico para el Bienestar).

Key points

• Key points:
• Growth remains concentrated in services, with retail trade as the main driver, expanding by 4.3%, while wholesale trade and mining weighed on overall performance. Looking ahead to 2026, a gradual recovery is expected, led by industry and services, supported by an industrial rebound and the boost from the FIFA World Cup.
• The automotive industry entered a contraction phase following a 5.6% decline in GDP in 2025. At the subsector level, Cars and Trucks fell by 9.1%, Auto Parts by 1.6%, and Bodyworks by 1.6%, largely attributable to the impact of U.S. tariffs and weakening demand for these goods.
• At the state level, the economic environment remains subdued, largely explained by a decline in public investment, particularly in southern states. For 2026, a moderate recovery at the state level is anticipated, partly associated with World Cup-related activity, especially in sectors such as transportation, tourism, and consumption.
• In 2025, export growth was driven by the Computer and Electronics industry, a sector highly integrated into production networks and concentrated in the northern and central regions of the country. Mexico continues to consolidate its role as an assembly platform within global value chains, with a high dependence on Asian inputs.
• Development Poles in Mexico represent a key policy tool to coordinate investment, employment, and production linkages. Their success depends on productive capabilities and policy continuity. Of the 13 officially designated Poles, only four show strong economic coherence in their identified productive specializations.

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