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Fed’s quest to preserve the soft landing began today: it unequivocally confirmed that its focus has shifted to the labor market. It doesn’t look overly concerned about a hard landing, but rather signals its commitment “not to get behind” during the rate cut cycle.
Fed’s focus has shifted to the labor market and, in view of monetary policy lags, achieving a soft landing is now its main worry. This means the FOMC will not wait for weak labor market conditions before softening the policy stance.
After the poor result in June, activity advanced 4.5% year-on-year in July. The release of private pension funds and an additional working day had a positive impact on this figure.
July inflation was 0.28% m/m. The result is explained by the increase in the prices of some foods, especially poultry products and tubers, which was explained by supply factors. With this result, the interannual inflation rate stood at 2.0% in …
Credit to the non-financial private sector accelerated in June (7.5% in real terms) hand in hand with corporate credit. On the deposits side, the increase in demand deposits and the exchange rate depreciation supported the stabilization of trad…
July’s meeting minutes confirmed a Fed’s dovish shift, with "a vast majority" of FOMC officials observing that "it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting."
GDP grew 0.21% year-on-year in June, below market expectations. By productive sectors, both the primary and non-primary components moderated compared to the previous month.
Our base case is a split 3-2 vote in favor of a 25bp rate cut to 10.75% with a majority of members acknowledging a weakening economy and increased confidence about the inflation outlook, but the sudden peso depreciation following the weekend’s …
The inflation rate for July was 0.24% MoM. This outcome is attributed to the increase in prices of food items such as chicken, corn, and potatoes, as well as higher transportation costs driven by the seasonal impact of national holidays and ris…
The Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging that risks are broadly balanced: it is now “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” rather than “highly attentive to inflation risks.”
Following reassuring inflation data in the inter-meeting period, FOMC members likely regained some confidence in the disinflationary process. FOMC participants might be inclined to suggest a September rate cut, but a strong signal at Jackson Hole next month is more likely.
The indebtedness of the private sector remains below that of peer countries, though signs of deterioration in NPL ratios started to be seen. Banks’ FC liquid assets are solid enough to cover their ST external debt. FC credit evolution and swap policies of the CBRT will be decisive for banks’ FC liquidity.
