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The favorable core inflation trend gives Banxico room to continue lowering the policy rate, which will remain tight during 2024-25 despite a gradual rate cut cycle, but we now expect Banxico to pause the rate cut cycle this week and take rates down to 9.75% by year end.
In a context of a strong economy and a lack of further progress on inflation in recent months, the Fed unequivocally signaled that it can be patient and will give the restrictive monetary policy stance more time to do its job before deciding to cut rates.
The consumer price index contracted 0.05% MoM in April. The result for the month is explained by supply and seasonal factors. The year-on-year rate was 2.4% (3.0% in March) within the Central Bank's target range.
Financial markets’ expectations on the future path of monetary policy have shifted significantly. While it will evidently take longer than expected to gain confidence on the path to 2%, the Fed is unlikely to rule out rate cuts this year.
A third-in-a-row 0.4% MoM core CPI inflation reading for March following strong jobs reports added to a series of hot data that suggest a rate cut soon is off the table amid increased odds for less than three rate cuts this year.
GDP grew 2.8% YoY in February. This result was influenced by the additional day of activity due to the fact that 2024 is a leap year and the low YoY comparison base. The growth of the mining sector and some sectors of non-primary GDP stood out.
In February 2024, the balance of traditional bank deposits (sight + term) registered a real annual growth rate of 5.8%, while the balance of the current credit portfolio granted by commercial banks to the non-financial private sector (NFPS) recorded a real annual growth of 5.1%.
The indebtedness of different agents remains below that of peers. The composition of external debt has been shifting among the borrowers since 2018. There is the increasing trend led by public, compared to the ongoing decline in the private sec…
The consumer price index increased 1.1% MoM in March. The result for the month is explained by seasonal and supply factors. The year-on-year rate was 3.0% (3.3% in February) at the upper limit of the Central Bank's target range.
The German Bund 10Y term premium turned positive in the aftermath of the pandemic, boosted by the upward trend in the uncertainty surrounding inflation as well as spillover effects from a higher US term-premium. Furthermore, Euro Area growth un…
Foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth fell from 1% to 0.3% due to both commercial and consumer credits in the sector. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend rose slightly from 34.4% to 35% with the impact of strong weekly growth rates of the previous 4 weeks.
This first rate cut marks the start of a long and gradual easing cycle that will most likely keep the monetary policy stance restrictive throughout this year and next even if Banxico cuts the policy rate without skipping any meeting in the remainder of the year and in 2025.
