Employment latest publications
May shows progress in the labor market, due to the gradual opening of the economy, with the recovery of 15% of the jobs and 33% of the labor force lost between February and April. However, the high level of inactivity seen until April translated into an increase in the number of the unemployed in May.
The fall in GDP expected as a result of COVID-19 will be unparalleled in history. The decline in GDP per working-age population in 2020 is expected to be 10% greater than the decline seen in 2019, marking a return to levels seen in 2015.
The development of the COVID-19 remains the dominant factor for most regional economies. Many businesses, especially in the services sector, become insolvent due to the loss of income. Social distancing measures suppress people’s mobility.
July 2, 2020
Spain| Historical drop in employment in 2Q, despite the ERTE & the positive figure in June
Social Security enrolment increased by 68,200 people (-4.6% p/a) in June and unemployment rose by 5,100 (28.1% p/a). Adjusted for seasonality, employment grew by 27,400 people, but unemployment continued to rise (80,900). In 2Q20, affiliation fell by 4.7 t/t CVEC and the number of unemployed rose by 18.8%.
This Economic Watch assesses the structural shocks that explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during the COVID-19 crisis. For this purpose, we use information from the latest forecasts from BBVA Research (2020) which are exogenous to the model.
In Castilla-La Mancha, GDP could fall between 6.4% and 9% depending on the scenario and the recovery by 2021 could be insufficient to recover the GDP levels of early 2019. Employment could fall between 6.1% and 8.7% in 2020, which would mean losing between 20,000 and 32,000 jobs in the biennium.
While some readers, given their experience with it, might resent remote working, is the resentment they may be feeling toward this way of working really felt more widely? Answering that question is not just an academic exercise.
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a loss of more than 1 million formal jobs in just three months. Given the uncertainty about the economic recovery and the number of closed and inactive companies, a further deepening of job losses is expected.