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November 30, 2020

Spain | Andalusia Economic Outlook 2020

The GDP of Andalusia may shrink by 11.8% this year and grow by 6.1% in 2021, losing 90,000 jobs. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous by sectors, urban areas and personal characteristics. Public policies allow for less job destruction, but risks push the perspectives downward.

November 16, 2020

Peru | Normalisation of economic activity continues, surprising positively in September

Output fell by 6,9% YoY in September. Available indicators for October suggest that the normalisation of economic activity has continued. Accelerating this process will require, among other things, both limiting sanitation and political uncertainty and boosting public investment.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

November 10, 2020

Spain | Macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 on the Spanish economy

We use a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the contribution of structural disturbances that explain the main macroeconomic aggregates in COVID-19 and the damping effects of economic policies in Spain.

November 6, 2020

U.S. | Strong November labor market report amidst rising uncertainty

After showing signs of slowing in September, the unemployment rate plunged to 6.9% in October. This decline was driven by disproportionately higher job gains in the household survey. Without additional fiscal support the risks of the labor market backsliding in the 4Q20 are growing.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

November 4, 2020

Spain | Impact of COVID-19 on the GDP of the Spanish regions in 2020: an initial estimate

This Working Paper presents an estimate of the performance of the monthly GDP of the autonomous communities, starting from the beginning of the pandemic, and a range of possible values for their total GDP in 2020.

October 27, 2020

Spain | LFS confirms a partial but better than expected recovery in 3Q20

Job creation was 569,700 (-3.5% YoY). Employees who worked fewer hours than usual due to ERTE or partial unemployment fell to 887,100. The easing of mobility restrictions allowed job searches to take place, which led to a rebound in the active population and, therefore, an increase in the unemployment rate to 16.3%.

October 26, 2020

Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2020

We expect a 13% drop in 2020s GDP. Although activity is slightly improving, high-frequency data is showing a sluggish recovery for 2H20. In 2021, we expect activity to grow by 5.5%. A successful debt negotiation should open a window to carry out structural reforms that lead the country to a sustainable growth path.

October 26, 2020

Spain | Expecting the unexpected

Economists are getting used to expecting the unexpected. The unprecedented fall in Spain's GDP—seen during the first half of the year—was followed by one of the highest growth rates ever recorded.