April 2, 2021
Employment latest publications
March saw an addition of 916,000 jobs to nonfarm payroll and a drop in the unemployment rate by 0.2pp to 6.0%. This high uptick in the employment situation was brought about by a successful vaccination campaign, the ongoing reopening of the economy and massive fiscal support.
In February, the economy added 379,000 nonfarm payroll jobs while the unemployment rate edged down to 6.2%. To secure a faster recovery, policymakers should continue provisioning ample fiscal and monetary support. Premature removal of either could threaten the prospects of the recovery.
COVID-19 and the restrictions put in place to try to limit its spread made 2020 a very difficult year. Widespread vaccination and fiscal and monetary stimulus plans will allow growth to return in 2021 and 2022.
February 22, 2021
Mexico | Weak recovery of formal employment with strong adjustment in wage distribution
Job creation is off to a slow start in 2021. Despite having positive job creation in January is insufficient given the loss of jobs that occurred since the start of the pandemic, which maintains a gap of 792 thousand jobs less compared to February 2020.
Short-term uncertainties have not changed the expectation that 2021 will be a year of recovery in which the Spanish economy, the Eurozone and the United States will see improvements.
January’s labor market report continued to show strains from the resurgence in Covid-19 cases, with nonfarm payrolls relatively unchanged at +46K. Despite the tepid hiring conditions, the unemployment rate fell 40bp to 6.3%, with the number of unemployed dropping by 600K.
The economy of Aragon may have shrunk by 9.7% in 2020, and might grow 5.6% in 2021 and 6.4 in 2022. Public policies softened the impact of COVID-19. Consumption and investment will push the economy through 2021. With risks, the situation should be getting back to normal by 2022.
January 29, 2021
Spain | GDP grew by 0.4% q/q in 4Q20, and closed 2020 with an annual decline of 11%
The economy slowed as expected in Q4 (0.4% q/q). Domestic demand increased, driven by consumption, while investment and exports decreased. Thus, 2020 closed with an annual decline of 11%, which confirms BBVA Research forecasts and places activity at 2014-2015 levels.