Spain | The economy continues to grow, although less than estimated at the beginning of 3Q
The growth of the Spanish economy could remain at around 0.6% quarterly during 3Q, below that expected at the beginning of the quarter. This, together with the continued risks hanging over the economy, reinforces the downward bias in the 2018 growth forecasts projected by BBVA Research (2.9%).
Spain | Downward bias in economic growth with high internal and external uncertainty
After the surprisingly disappointing results in 2Q, the Spanish economy is set to record quarterly growth of 0.7% in 3Q. This, together with the increase of risks and its probability of materialization has meant a downward bias in the 2018 growth forecasts projected by BBVA Research (2.9%).
Spain Regional Watch. Third quarter 2018
The maintenance of domestic demand growth and the fiscal impulse will support the growth of the western communities this year. Going forward, the increase in oil price, the exhaustion of the tourism sector, the increase in tariffs worldwide and the uncertainty about economic policy may pose greater risks for some communities.
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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018
We expect and acceleration of GDP growth from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption. Low expected inflation, the adjustment in external accounts made by Colombia and the stability in the exchange rate will allow the Central Bank to maintain its reference rate in an accommodative stance for a prolonged time.
Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018
We expect and acceleration of GDP growth from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption. Low expected inflation, the adjustment in external accounts made by Colombia and the stability in the exchange rate will allow the Central Bank to maintain its reference rate in an accommodative stance for a prolonged time.
Infographic Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018
The GDP growth forecasts for the Spanish economy stay at 2.9% for 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. However, the composition of demand is less favourable than that observed three months ago. In addition, the probability of materializing some risks that may result in less dynamic scenarios has increased.
Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018
The GDP growth forecasts for the Spanish economy stay at 2.9% for 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. However, the composition of demand is less favourable than that observed three months ago. In addition, the probability of materializing some risks that may result in less dynamic scenarios has increased.
Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018
The GDP growth forecasts for the Spanish economy stay at 2.9% for 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. However, the composition of demand is less favourable than that observed three months ago. In addition, the probability of materializing some risks that may result in less dynamic scenarios has increased.
La Rioja Economic Outlook 2018
The economy of La Rioja grew by 1.8% in 2017, and will accelerate to 2.6% in 2018 and 2019. The region will create around 4,500 new jobs by the end of 2019, although the likelihood of some of the risk to this scenario has grown.
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Convergence
Generally speaking, a region’s well-being is determined by the percentage of available inputs available and how productive they are. In the first case, some measures include the unemployment rate (what percentage of people who are willing to work do not have a job) or activity (how many of those of working age want to participate in the labour market).
Portugal | The slowdown in GDP growth continued in 2Q18
Portugal’s GDP grew by 0.4% QoQ in 1Q18, 0.3 pp less than the growth seen in the previous quarter and that forecast by BBVA Research. Domestic demand continues to grow strongly, in contrast with the recent weakness seen in exports, which have been affected by the reduced thrust of the euro zone economy. BBVA Research estimates that growth in 2Q18 will be around 0.3% QoQ.
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Spain | Sustained growth, despite internal and external uncertainty
Growth is expected to be around 0.8% in 2Q and the BBVA Research forecast for 2018 remains unchanged (2.9%), although there are still biases. On the one hand, the approval of the PGE18 suggests a more expansive fiscal policy. On the other hand, external uncertainty still persists and, in Spain, the relative one to economic policy has increased.
Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2018
The economy of Madrid grew by 3.4% in 2017, and will continue growing at the same pace in 2018, and 2.7% in 2019. The region will create around 156,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.
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Murcia Economic Outlook 2018
The economy of the Canary Islands grew by 3.3% in 2017, and will continue growing by a further 3.3% in 2018 and by 2.6% in 2019. The region will create around 30,000 new jobs by the end of 2019, despite the weakening of some external factors.
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Spain | Deciding factors in the 2017 economic cycle
This watch is evaluating the structural factors that shed light on the cyclical behaviour of the Spanish economy in 2017, estimating how they contributed to the annual growth rate of macroeconomic variables such as GDP or salaries.
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