Employment latest publications
The labor market continued to improve in August with nonfarm payrolls growing by 1.4M and the unemployment rate dropping to 8.4%. The number of persons on temporary layoff declined by 3.1M while the labor force participation edged up to 61.7%.
Social Security Affiliation raised by 6,800 people in August (-2.7% YoY) and unemployment by 29800 (24% YoY). Discounting seasonality, the number of contributors grew by 180000 and the unemployed fell by 17000. The estimated impact of the crisis continues to be significant: -960000 contributors and 825000 unemployed.
The 2020 lockdown resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic cost nearly one million jobs between February and May, a figure similar to what was lost between Aug-08 and Mar-09. In contrast, the measures adopted in 2020 have allowed for a smaller impact on employment than that observed in the GDP.
August 12, 2020
Spain | The Mediterranean regions, protagonists of a more markedly V-shaped recovery
The spread of COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on the Spanish economy on various fronts. The lockdown that began in March did not last 15 days as initially thought, but ultimately went on for over 90 days.
Today’s labor market report once again showed that the economy is on the mend. However, this environment creates more complexity for Congress, as it supports arguments from both sides of the aisle. That said, Fed officials will continue to take additional steps as it transitions from “stabilization” to “accommodation”.
August 4, 2020
Spain | A notable improvement in employment in July, but not enough to overcome the crisis
Social Security affiliation increased by 161,217 people (-3.8% YoY) and unemployment fell by 89,849 (25.3% YoY). Excluding seasonality, employment grew by 150,000 people and unemployment fell by 85,000. However, the estimated impact of the crisis is still significant: 1,175,000 contributors and 843,000 unemployed.
The fall in GDP in Q2 (-18.5% QoQ; -22.1% YoY) slightly exceeded expectations and confirmed the serious effects of the containment. Domestic demand suffered most of the adjustment (-16.1pp QoQ; -4.2pp YoY), but external demand also fell. The fall in hours worked was intense and productivity increased.
Baseline assumes real GDP declines by 5.1% in 2020. Peak unemployment reached, but risks to the labor market remain. Disinflationary headwinds abate, but inflation to remain low in 2020.