Spain | Downward biases on growth expectations persist
The growth of the Spanish economy could be between 0.6% and 0.8% quarterly during Q4. However, the downward surprise recorded in Q3 (0.6% QoQ as against an estimate of 0.7% QoQ), together with the persistence of the risks that hang over the scenario, is maintaining the downward bias on the growth forecast for 2018 by BBVA Research (2.6%).
Madrid Economic Outlook. Second half 2018
The economy of the Community of Madrid grew 3.4% in 2017 and will moderate its rate of growth up to 3.2% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. Unemployment will be reduced to 11.4% in 2019, but some risks are more likely now than a few months ago. Once the GDP per capita has returned to its pre-crisis level, the challenge is to reach 2008 level of employment and improve its quality.
Available in Spanish
Spain Regional Watch. Fourth quarter 2018
With the most recent data, GDP growth remains solid, but it would have slowed down in all autonomous communities. Tourism deepens the moderation of activity in the Mediterranean and island communities. In addition, the lower dynamism in the first half of exports and consumption weighs on growth also in the rest in 2018.
Available in Spanish
Pensions, employment and contributivity
Distributive pension systems such as Spain’s are based on an implied inter-generational contract between workers and pensioners. A contract which in addition to being sustainable in the long term and providing adequate pensions, must also be balanced and efficient. Without sustainability, adequacy cannot be assured.
Presentation Asturias Economic Outlook 2018
The economy of Asturias grew 3.5% in 2017, but will moderate it to 2.5% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. The unemployment rate will reduce to 11.2% in 2019, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. While pre-crisis per capita GDP will be reached, absolute GDP will not; better and stronger job creation remains as a challenge.
Available in Spanish
Asturias Economic Outlook 2018
The economy of Asturias grew 3.5% in 2017, but will moderate it to 2.5% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. The unemployment rate will reduce to 11.2% in 2019, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. While pre-crisis per capita GDP will be reached, absolute GDP will not; better and stronger job creation remains as a challenge.
Available in Spanish
Aragon Outlook and Prospects. Fourth quarter 2018
Aragon could grow by 2.8% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019 in an export-friendly environment, with investment plans underway and a favourable economic policy. Uncertainty remains at high levels.
Available in Spanish
Infographic Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018
The expected growth of the Spanish economy is revised downwards, to 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019, due to the negative surprises registered in the first semester. In addition, a downward bias is maintained over the forecasts presented in this scenario, given the increase in uncertainty, both external and internal.
Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018
The expected growth of the Spanish economy is revised downwards, to 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019, due to the negative surprises registered in the first semester. In addition, a downward bias is maintained over the forecasts presented in this scenario, given the increase in uncertainty, both external and internal.
Catalonia Economic Outlook. Second half 2018
The GDP of Catalonia grew by 3.3% in 2017, and it is expected to advance at a rate of 2.5% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. 130 thousand jobs will be created and the unemployment rate will be reduced to 10%. In the absence of uncertainty, investment in equipment and employment would have shown greater growth.
Spain | The effect of uncertainty in Catalonia: a synthetic control analysis
Private sector Social Security registrations in Catalonia have slowed down markedly since mid-2017. The analysis presented suggests that the increased uncertainty in the region had a negative effect on employment, reducing job creation by about 30,000 jobs.
Available in Spanish
Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018
The expected growth of the Spanish economy is revised downwards, to 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019, due to the negative surprises registered in the first half. In addition, a downward bias is maintained over the forecasts presented in this scenario, given the increase in uncertainty, both external and internal.
Cantabria Economic Outlook 2018
The economy of Cantabria grew 3.2% in 2017 and will moderate its growth rate to 2.8% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. It will create around 10,000 jobs until the end of 2019, although some risks are more likely now than a few months ago. The level of absolute and per capita GDP will recover, but the challenge is to create more and better employment.
Available in Spanish
Castilla-La Mancha Economic Outlook 2018
The economy of Castile-La Mancha grew 2.5% in 2017, but will accelerate to a 2.8% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019, creating around 48,000 new jobs and lowering the unemployment rate to 14.8% during this two-year period. While the pre-crisis GDP per capita will be reached, better and stronger job creation remains the main challenge.
Available in Spanish
Portugal | Growth is upheld, but there are signs of a slowdown
Portuguese GDP grew 0.6% t/t in 2Q18, mainly due to the increase in gross capital formation and the improvement in the external sector, and despite the low growth of domestic final consumption. Based on the indicators available so far, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q18 will be approximately 0.3% QoQ SWDA.
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