Argentina | BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (Oct 14, 2021)

Summary

Consumption declined significantly in the second half of September, although there is still good news for tourism spending as a result of the "Previaje" program. Based on our indicators, we forecast a third quarter with weak performance in general activity, industrial production, construction and supermarket purchases.

Key points

• Key points:
• General consumption with BBVA cards reduced its average YoY growth by 15 pp between the first and second half of September causing the level of purchases to be 10% below the figure before the beginning of the pandemic.
• Good news for tourism-related categories, whose consumption levels continue to rise, driven by the official "Previaje" program.
• Our real-time spending indicators foreshadow a lackluster third quarter in economic activity performance, industrial production figures and construction activity.
• Official supermarket sales data surveyed in July were also in tune with our high-definition monitoring. A relative slowdown in spending was observed in August and September.

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