China | Negative Jan-Feb economic activity outturns point to a historical low growth in Q1

Summary

A batch of record-low negative January-February indicators announced today pointed to a significant slowdown in economic activities in Q1 amid the outbreak of COVID-19 in China.

Key points

• Key points:
• We predict that there will be a “deep-V” shape growth pattern this year.
• The negative growth in January-February is broad-based as all indicators are below the previous readings and the market consensus.
• On the other hand, Jan-Feb credit data are also below the market expectations and the previous readings.
• We therefore anticipate more monetary and fiscal easing measures to be deployed to reverse negative growth in the rest of the year.

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