Global | Aimless noise in Washington

Summary

This year, the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in Washington were characterized by noise. The biggest concerns remain the impact of tariffs on the economy and on financial assets, especially the dollar.

Key points

• Key points:
• There is no certainty about the final levels of tariffs, the negotiation processes, or what the U. S. will ask third countries to do to reduce them. Not even about who is leading the talks.
• At the very least, the meetings allowed some country delegations to draw red lines, to explain why they could not meet certain U. S. demands, and for the private sector to express its concerns about investment and growth.
• Doubts remain about the U. S. economy: recession, slowdown and/or lower potential growth? The fiscal situation is also worrying. As for the rest of the world, the doubts are about whether retaliation will be taken, but above all, whether reforms will be made to sustain growth or reorient fiscal priorities.
• It is hoped, rather than expected, that Europe will make better use of the single market, make progress in the union of savings and investments, and increase its defense spending.
• Regarding China, the perception is that it wants to project a position of strength by being patient. However, the presence of representatives from this country was merely symbolic.

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