Global | Chartbook of International Commerce. April 2026

Summary

Global trade remained strong early in the year, supported by the ongoing AI boom, despite tariffs and fading pharma front-loading effects. Middle East tensions pose a new risk to international flows.

Key points

• Key points:
• Global trade continued to exhibit strength at the beginning of the year, but the ongoing tensions in the Middle East represent a new challenge for international flows. The spike in energy prices and emerging supply disruptions may eventually help to weaken trade flows, something that US tariffs have not yet been able to do.
• US tariffs have, in fact, been declining over the past months. The US Supreme Court overruling of IEEPA tariffs may contibute to a further decline ahead, even though the US administration has reacted to the legal decision by enacting a 10% universal tariff. Still, US tariffs are likely to remain at high levels, leading to an already evident reconfiguration of global trade, where trade flows into and from the US are to some extent replaced by trade among other countries.
• The ongoing AI boom is providing support to the global economy. US imports of AI-related goods have increased sharply in a short period of time; they now represent around 22% of (increasing) US imports, approximately 10pp more than in 2024. Countries benefiting from that trend include Taiwan, Mexico and Vietnam, which, in contrast to China, face low tariffs on their AI exports.
• Early 2026 data suggest that pharmaceutical exports from Europe (mostly from Ireland), which increased sharply ahead of tariffs in 2025, are now decelerating. The movement is not surprising, but it could contribute to moderating activity and exports in the region.

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