Mexico Economic Outlook. October 2024

Summary

Growth and inflation moderate; we estimate that a continuous cycle of rate cuts has begun. We revised downward the economic growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 given the weakening of domestic demand.

Key points

• Key points:
• We revised downward our growth forecast for 2024 to 1.2%, given the prolonged weakness in domestic demand; we estimate growth of 1.0% by 2025.
• Slowdown in formal employment growth; a lower pace of job creation is expected going forward, we revise downward our forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
• General inflation has resumed its downward trend, which we predict will be continuous going forward; the core will be below 4.0% in 4Q24.
• We forecast the exchange rate to close 2024 and 2025 at 19.8 and 19.2 ppd, respectively. Regarding public debt, we estimate that it will increase to 50.8% at the end of 2024 vs. 46.8% of GDP in 2023.

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