Mexico | Limited effect of the World Cup on private spending in June

Summary

Private consumption in Mexico fell 0.2% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year contraction of 4.9%. The effect of the World Cup was limited and heterogeneous, not generating a widespread rebound. Spending on tourism services contracted, while entertainment spending grew. Atony is expected to persist.

Key points

• Key points:
• Spending on tourism services contracted sharply, with monthly falls of 10.5% in hotels and 4.9% in restaurants. In contrast, entertainment services grew by 16.5% month-on-month, possibly driven by the World Cup.
• Spending in physical stores fell 0.9% month-on-month, the largest drop since February. Conversely, digital consumption remains 15% above January 2025 levels, highlighting a structural shift in household consumption habits.
• Gasoline spending, used as a mobility indicator, fell by 2.5% month-on-month in June. This marks the fifteenth consecutive drop since April 2025, with a year-on-year contraction of 5.6%, signaling lower mobility.
• The weakness of domestic demand is estimated to extend through the second half of 2026. A gradual recovery is anticipated for 2027, as the industrial sector recovers and generates a spillover effect on services.

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