Mexico | Trade & FDI Outlook 1H 2025

Summary

In June 2025, Mexico faced an effective average tariff of 8.28% on $44.9 billion in exports to the US—among the lowest globally. This reflects shifting trade flows and sector-specific tariff variations, positioning Mexico to benefit from renewed nearshoring momentum.

Key points

• Key points:
• Mexico's trade momentum remains strong, as evidenced by the June 2025 figures. During the 1H25, cumulative exports reached USD 313 billion (4.3% YoY growth) vs USD 311 billion in imports (0.2% YoY growth), yielding a USD 1.4 billion surplus.
• Manufacturing goods remained the backbone of Mexico’s foreign trade, accounting for nearly 90% of accumulated exports. Notably the agricultural and livestock industry reached a 3.9% share, positioning itself as the second most important export category, surpassing oil (2.0%) until this day.
• FDI inflows reached US$134.8 bn in 2024 revised figures (4.7% YoY growth) and by 1H25 reached US$55.6 bn and continue to grow 8.2% compared to 1H24 funnelling mainly into manufacturing (38.8% of 1H25 FDI) followed by Financial Services (25.8%) via clusters in Mexico City (55.9% of 1H25 FDI), Nuevo León (10.3%), State of Mexico (7.4%) and Guanajuato (2.8%).
• The US leads FDI inflows with US$23 bn (41.3% of 1H25 FDI) followed by Spain (16.5%), the Netherlands (4.7%), Canada (4.6%) and Australia (4.4%); Asian nations account for a smaller share led by Japan (3.9%), South Korea (1.7%) and China (0.4%) during 1H25.
• Mexico may face a lower level of relative protectionism. A plausible scenario considers Mexican producers to deduct US content in car exports (Av. 18.3%) and de facto 0% tariff on autoparts that satisfy USMCA rules, reducing the average tariff to 12.0%. Moreover, if the Trump administration agrees to cut migration—and fentanyl-related tariffs to 12%, the average could fall to 7.5%. Recent US appeals court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, if definitive, could drop the average rate to 4.0%, US Supreme Court will define the final equilibrium.

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