Published on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 | Updated on Thursday, June 4, 2020

Turkey | May CPI confirms upside risks on inflation

Consumer prices increased by 1.36% in May. Therefore, annual inflation accelerated to 11.39% from 10.94% in April. Depending on the food inflation and the level of exchange rate, headline inflation could stay close to 12% in June before converging to 9% towards the end of 3Q and ending the year at near 8.5%.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Consumer prices increased sizably higher than both consensus and our expectation in May.
  • The upside surprise stemmed mainly from the core prices.
  • Seasonally higher unprocessed food inflation continue to push the headline on the upside.
  • Energy prices started to correct faster than expectations during May.

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