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May 27, 2022

Mexico | Reduction of tariffs: a good measure, with a limited anti-inflationary effect

As part of the package against inflation and famine (PACIC) implemented by the federal government to contain inflationary pressures, the removal of tariffs on various food products for one year was announced.

February 3, 2022

Turkey | Annual CPI climbed up to 48.7% in January

Consumer prices increased by 11.1% in January parallel to expectations and resulted in an annual inflation of 48.7% up from 36.1% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to remain around 55% in 2Q and 3Q before falling down to 35% at the end of the year, helped by the favorable base impact in December.

August 3, 2021

Turkey | Consumer inflation reached 18.95% in July

Consumer prices increased by 1.8% in July, higher than expectations on the back of upside surprise in food prices resulting in an annual inflation of 18.95% (up from 17.53% the month before). We expect consumer inflation to stay close to 18.5-19% till November and end the year at 16% with the help of positive base effects.

July 3, 2020

Turkey | June CPI reinforces a worsening outlook

Consumer prices increased by 1.13% in June, remaining significantly above both the consensus and our expectation (0.6% vs. 0.45%). Thus, also led by the negative base effects, annual inflation accelerated to 12.62% from 11.39% in May.

June 3, 2020

Turkey | May CPI confirms upside risks on inflation

Consumer prices increased by 1.36% in May. Therefore, annual inflation accelerated to 11.39% from 10.94% in April. Depending on the food inflation and the level of exchange rate, headline inflation could stay close to 12% in June before converging to 9% towards the end of 3Q and ending the year at near 8.5%.

May 4, 2020

Turkey | Annual CPI realized at 10.9% in April

Consumer prices increased by 0.85% in April, higher than both the consensus and our expectation (0.6%). Though, annual inflation continued to decelerate to 10.94% from 11.86% in March on top of favorable base effects led by energy prices. We expect consumer inflation to be 7.5% at the end of 2020.

April 3, 2020

Turkey | Annual CPI comes down to 11.9% in March

Consumer prices increased by 0.57% in March, higher than both the consensus 0.5% and BBVA Research 0.23%. Annual inflation declined to 11.86% from 12.37% in February, led by favorable base effects. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to experience one digit levels as early as May and end the year at near 7.5%.

December 3, 2019

Turkey | Inflation surprised on the downside

Consumer prices increased by 0.38% mom in November, way lower than market consensus and ours (0.75%, Bloomberg vs 0.77%, BBVA). Annual inflation increased to 10.56% from 8.55% in October due to the unfavorable base effect. We expect that annual inflation will increase close to 11.8% at the end of 2019 with downside risk.