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Published on Wednesday, April 22, 2020 | Updated on Thursday, May 7, 2020

U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse. April 2020

Baseline assumes GDP declines by 4.4% in 2020. GDP returns to pre-crisis levels by 2Q22. Peak unemployment rate could surpass 15%. With inflation headwinds building we expect CPI to drop by 0.1% in 2020.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Fed to keep rates at the Zero Lower Bound, balance sheet to grow to $7.5tn
  • Long-term yields to remain close to current levels by year-end
  • Oil prices to remain low in 2020
  • Uncertainty remains over the depth and duration of the crisis
  • Risks tilted to the downside

Geographies

  • Geography Tags
  • USA

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