Published on Wednesday, December 11, 2019 | Updated on Tuesday, December 17, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. December 2019

Probability of recession in 12 months at one-year lows (30%). Financial conditions remain solid after Fed “mid-cycle” adjustment. Strong household finances supporting consumption.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Slight pullback in riskier business lending, but tail risks remain
  • Key concerns: trade frictions, market liquidity & equity price correction
  • Despite industrial recession in advanced economics, global system risks muted


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