Spain | Basque Country Economic Outlook 2026

Summary

The Basque Country economy will maintain growth close to 2% over the two-year period, supported by the strength of the labor market, private consumption and investment, although the deterioration in the international environment increases uncertainty and risks to activity.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP will grow by 1.9% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, which would allow around 30,000 jobs to be created over the two-year period and reduce the unemployment rate to 6.8% in 2027.
• Employment growth is accelerating, driven by public services, manufacturing and professional activities, with immigration partially offsetting the region’s demographic constraints.
• Investment is showing a more dynamic performance than in Spain as a whole, supported by imports of capital goods and commercial vehicle registrations, while tourism continues to perform positively thanks to the rebound in spending and overnight stays by foreign visitors.
• Private consumption will continue to be supported by employment growth, the increase in disposable income and the improvement in household wealth, although its pace of growth is expected to moderate gradually.
• The main risk stems from the deterioration in the international environment (energy, supply chains and uncertainty), which will continue to shape the performance of industry and exports. Over the medium term, the main challenges involve raising productivity, expanding housing supply and easing labor market constraints.

Geographies

Topics

Tags