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Published on Monday, October 25, 2021

Spain | Reversion to the average

This week, the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE) publishes its first estimate of 3Q21 GDP and it is very likely to show an acceleration in economic growth. This is a result of the atypical figures recorded in 2Q21 reverting back to more normal values in 3Q21.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • At BBVA Research, we expect quarterly growth of around 4% in 3Q21, compared to 1.1% in 2Q21.
  • One of the reversions that could be seen in the 3Q21 data, is the performance of construction investment — which has fallen and, therefore, been inconsistent with the positive trend in sector employment.
  • Another about-turn in the 3Q21 figures, is the strong growth in published imports, especially in consumer goods.
  • Productivity per hour worked has also been somewhat atypical. According to the historical relationship between hours worked and GDP, quarterly growth of 4% of the former —like that recorded in 2Q21—should have been accompanied by an increase in GDP of around 3% (in line with INE's first estimate).
  • Overall, the atypical behaviour of certain variables, together with a continued recovery in consumer expenditure (particularly in services) and employment, suggests strong growth in 3Q21.

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