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The sanctions imposed on Russia will impact negatively on the Spanish economy. There are few direct transmission channels, but the indirect ones could put a brake on recovery in the next few months.

In the last few months, a depression appears to have arrived that has poured cold water on economic forecasts — affecting in particular the autonomous communities of the North. This correction, however, does not stop us from repeating once again that in both 2021 and 2022, growth is expected to reach historical highs.

This week, the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE) publishes its first estimate of 3Q21 GDP and it is very likely to show an acceleration in economic growth. This is a result of the atypical figures recorded in 2Q21 reverting back to…

Spain was the Eurozone country that recorded the largest rebound in the household saving rate in the first half of last year. Health restrictions and the fear of contagion were the main factors behind the increase in family savings.

In February, total card consumption fell 4,3% YoY (26,9% in January 2021). There was a strong increase in the share of on-line card purchases, consistent with the new reimposition of lockdowns.

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  • Peru

Economists are getting used to expecting the unexpected. The unprecedented fall in Spain's GDP—seen during the first half of the year—was followed by one of the highest growth rates ever recorded.

The drop in household spending is unprecedented. BBVA's credit card spending data went from an increase of around 10% in Catalonia before the state of alarm to a drop of almost 60% following its implementation.

The running out of tailwinds, the smaller increase in financial wealth and consumer financing and the rise in uncertainty will slow down the growth household consumption expenditure to 1.8% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020

Consumption growth, following steady progress in H2 2018, will slow to 2.1% in 2019 and to 1.8% in 2020 as a result of a lower contribution of financial wealth, a disappearance of pent-up demand and increased uncertainty. Fiscal stimuli, increa…

Private consumption surprised on the upside in early 2018. Growth will pick up to 2.6% in 2018, slowing to 2.1% in 2019. Incomes, housing wealth and credit will continue to show strength. The fiscal impulse included in the Peruvian annual budge…

The prospects for the Portuguese economy are positive, although the country still has significant imbalances that could slow the pace of recovery if the reforming zeal shown in the past few years is not maintained.

Why has an economy with an unemployment rate of more than 26% in the first half of 2013 had such a prolonged recovery in private consumption? The main reason was the change of cycle in the labour market.