Spain | The contribution of immigration to economic growth

Summary

Immigration has played a significant role in the recent improvement of GDP per capita in Spain, driven by increases in both employment and productivity. The key question moving forward is whether the Spanish economy will be able to better leverage the human capital it is taking in.

Key points

• Key points:
• Between 2022 and 2025, the foreign-born population grew by roughly 2 million people, reaching 9.5 million, while GDP per capita rose by 1.8% annually.
• Assuming hourly productivity equal to that of the native-born population, immigration would account for nearly 40% of the increase in GDP per capita since 2022.
• Estimates from BBVA Research indicate that the productivity per hour worked among the foreign population is 20% lower than that of the Spanish population, which would reduce immigration's contribution to GDP per capita growth to 25% of the total.
• Some factors behind this productivity gap are temporary, such as tenure. However, others point to the need for public policy intervention, such as education, training and access to higher value-added occupations.

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