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January 23, 2020

ECB WATCH | Change of climate

Today’s ECB statement saw very minor changes in the key paragraphs related to monetary policy. The ECB confirmed the risks surrounding the outlook are less pronounced.

December 12, 2019

Turkey | The CBRT delivered 200 bps rate cut

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) decreased the policy rate by 200 bps to 12% from 14%, slightly higher than market expectation of 150 bps. Global Central Banks Dovishness remain supportive but we think that complacency should be ruled out and the CBRT should be ready to act in any direction if the situation change.

November 8, 2019

Peru’s Central Bank surprises expanding monetary stimulus in November

After a two-month pause, the Board of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to cut the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points in November, from 2,50% to 2,25%.
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  • Peru

September 12, 2019

Turkey | The last bold cut… now time for fine tuning

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 325 bps from 19.75% to 16.50%. The movement was higher than expected (Consensus 275 bps) but the reaction of financial markets to today´s decision was positive as the CBRT justified the movement with a faster than expected disinflation in the statement.

July 25, 2019

Turkey | The easing cycle starts with a bold action

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 425 bps from 24% to 19.75%. The movement was bolder than expected by market expectation and ours (Consensus 250 bps, BBVA 200 bps). Some risks remains on both economic and geopolitical sides which should be met with a gradual and cautious policy.

June 12, 2019

Turkey | CBRT remains “tight” but closer to “ease”

As expected, the CBRT maintained its policy rate unchanged. Important uncertainties on politics and geopolitics remain to be solved, so today’s decision is a prudent one. We maintain our view that the CBRT will start the gradual easing cycle towards the end of the year, but the expected disinflation could bring it forward.

March 7, 2019

Central Bank digital currencies: features, options, pros and cons

The emergence of cryptocurrencies is opening the way to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). This paper highlights the pros and cons of issuing CBDCs under four different variants: from the more modest proposals to the most ambitious ones where there could be a serious disruption in financial intermediation.

February 18, 2019

The Central Bank of Turkey relies on Macro-Prudential and Communication policies

The CBRT decided to reduce the RRR in Turkish Lira and increase the upper limit of ROM facility for holding standard gold converted from wrought or scrap gold. Rather than considering the decision as an early sign of an interest rate cut, we perceive the decision as the logical response to stimulate credit but avoid a prema…