Global | Economic outlook and EU-Asia challenges

Summary

This presentation analyzes the global outlook (recent developments and forecasts), and focuses on the EU and Asia trade and capital flows, as well as the challenges both areas face arising from global changes and the reshaping of the world order.

Key points

• Key points:
• Despite US trade deals with the EU, UK, Japan, Vietnam, etc., uncertainty on tariffs remain given still unsettled negotiations, legal challenges and the view that they are now part of the US policy toolkit.
• GDP growth has remained broadly resilient in the first half of the year, despite deceleration signs.
• Inflation has risen (but less than expected) in the US; it remains close to 2% in the Eurozone and very low in China.
• China now plays a dominant role in the foreign value added of US exports but more so of EU’s.
• External military risk is behind recent EU geopolitical risk upsurge (though all components contribute), while internal internal political instability is driving Asia’s scaling risk.

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