Global | Global Value Chains (GVC): from efficiency to resilience

Summary

Global Value Chains transition from hyper-efficiency to resilience in the face of geopolitical shocks and higher tariffs. Total decoupling from China is unrealistic due to its control of key inputs; connector countries like Mexico emerge that benefit from this reorganization.

Key points

• Key points:
• US effective tariffs have recently reached their highest levels in 80 years, standing at around 15% at the statutory level, mainly affecting China and other Asian economies.
• Global trade maintains its strength and neutral countries deepen their participation; foreign direct investment in Mexico reached a record 41 billion dollars in the first three quarters of 2025.
• The United States, Germany, and Japan depend asymmetrically on China, which controls more than 50% of critical inputs such as aluminum and lithium, making a significant decoupling from Global Value Chains difficult.
• Global industrial policy is reorienting towards national security, with a significant increase in trade interventions between 2023 and 2024 in the United States, China, and the Eurozone compared to the 2009-2016 period.

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