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After the strong growth performance in 2023 with 4.5% y/y, we nowcast an acceleration in GDP growth rates in 1Q24 with 5.5% annually as of March. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% given the solid performance in 1Q, the pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows.
Improved financial conditions for households and businesses, facilitated by anticipated lower interest rates and inflation, will pave the way for a gradual economic recovery in Colombia throughout 2024, solidifying by 2025. We project a 1.5% GDP growth in 2024 and a further expansion of 2.8% in 2025.
We revise our activity impulse report to become a flash release at the start of each month. By the end of January, our GDP nowcast indicators signal a nearly stagnant quarterly GDP growth rate, which corresponds to an annual growth of 3.5%. We …
The Colombian economy will grow 1.5% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Private consumption, in the same two years, will grow at rates of 2.2% and 3.0%, respectively. And fixed investment will move from negative (-2.0% in 2024) to positive figures (6.2%…
GDP contracted 0.6% YoY in August. By productive sectors, the non-primary component contracted 1.9%, due to the decline in the construction sector and non-primary manufacturing. For its part, the primary component of GDP registered a growth of …
The Colombian economy will grow 1.2% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. The recovery will start slowly from the first part of 2024, driven by the improved performance of private consumption. Inflation is expected to show a gradual reduction path that will allow the intervention rate to come down from December 2023.
Once again, a critical date in the U.S. fiscal calendar is approaching. If Congress does not approve an increase in the federal government's budget by September 30, the executive branch will be forced to enact a shutdown on October 1.
The BBVA GDP Tracker, which is a real-time estimation tool for economic activity, anticipates the beginning of a slow recovery of GDP from September 2023. However, this upturn will come from low levels of economic growth, which are well below t…
In the global scenario, restrictive monetary policy will contribute to the gradual slowdown. The Colombian economy navigates the waters of an orderly deceleration in the coming quarters and with the capacity to continue growing 1.2% in 2023 and…
Colombia crecerá 1,2% en 2023 y 1,5% en 2024, apoyada en el crecimiento del sector público, del consumo privado por servicios y de las exportaciones. La inflación continuará ralentizándose y la política monetaria siendo restrictiva por un tiemp…
How is Latin America affected by the recent difficulties facing certain banks in the US and Europe? In all honesty it is too early to tell, but any eventual impact would be indirect and would not happen via the Latin American banking system.
The Colombian economy will moderate its growth, from high levels of activity, mainly due to lower private consumption. GDP will grow 0.7% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, after a gradual recovery from the end of this year. Inflation will gradually decline, ending this year at 9% and 2024 at 5%.
