Global | The economy: between resilience and oil

Summary

The balance of 2025 showed economic resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions, supported by lower inflation and investment. The war in the Middle East is a supply shock, whose impact will depend on how long it lasts and how oil prices evolve.

Key points

• Key points:
• Economic activity surprised to the upside at the end of 2025, driven by lower inflation, a weaker dollar, and strong investment linked to artificial intelligence in the United States.
• A scenario involving a short military conflict—lasting about one month—would limit the negative impact on global growth. The United States would grow by around 2.5% this year, while the euro area would expand by 1.1% in 2026.
• In a longer conflict scenario, the range of possible outcomes widens significantly. A prolonged war would intensify non-energy inflationary pressures and severely affect regions most dependent on imports from the Persian Gulf, such as Europe and Asia.

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