Global | What happened to protectionism?

Summary

The global economy faces a double-edged sword in the last quarter of 2025. On the one hand, risks are mounting linked to US economic policies, a less cooperative international environment, and a host of potential geo-economic and institutional shocks. On the other hand, it maintains greater resilience.

Key points

• Key points:
• In recent months, economic policy decisions in the United States have become the main source of concern. In addition, tariffs (which have risen somewhat more sharply than anticipated and, above all, in a more random manner), immigration restrictions, and certain judicial initiatives have raised doubts about the country's institutional stability.
• Despite some signs of moderation, global activity has remained dynamic, supported by resilient consumption, stimulus from investment in technological innovation, and trade flows that have not yet collapsed.
• Looking ahead to the coming quarters, a certain slowdown in global growth is expected. In the United States, growth will stabilize at around 1.75% for both 2025 and 2026.
• In the eurozone, the outlook is somewhat more favorable than expected, with an upward revision to 1.3% this year—although this is due to the advance of exports in the first half of the year—and a slowdown to 1% in 2026.
• As for inflation, in the United States, the effects of tariffs and domestic policy will continue to exert upward pressure, and it will remain around 3% in 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, in Europe, the price outlook is somewhat more favorable.

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