Global | War in Iran: a new global shock or a temporary slowdown?

Summary

The recent military escalation in the Middle East represents a new energy crisis for the global economy. Although higher resource prices will put upward pressure on inflation, for now, a temporary slowdown rather than a deep global recession is expected.

Key points

• Key points:
• Markets are betting on a limited conflict without a prolonged disruption of oil and gas flows, showing relative financial containment, although uncertainty about the scope of the conflict remains very high.
• The United States could maintain growth of around 2.5% in 2026, as its high level of domestic oil production and strong internal demand help cushion direct impacts.
• China faces this crisis with significant dependence on Middle Eastern crude, making it vulnerable. However, its capacity for state intervention and its 4.5% growth target act as stabilizers. For China, the stability of maritime shipping routes is now a national security priority.
• Europe remains the most sensitive link due to its reliance on imports. Although its post-Ukraine adaptation capacity allows growth projections above 1%, the impact will be asymmetric, hitting industrial production costs and households’ disposable income more severely.
• The Spanish economy shows comparative advantages relative to the rest of the eurozone: high regasification capacity, strong renewable penetration, and a “safe-destination” effect in the services/tourism sector. These factors, combined with a dynamic labor market, place Spain in a position of relatively lower vulnerability compared with its European peers.

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