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Published on Wednesday, April 6, 2022 | Updated on Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Mexico Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2022

Economic outlook with lower GDP growth, high inflation, and higher interest rates. A downward revision to our 2022 GDP growth estimate to 1.2% (2.1% previous) due to the continued weakness of domestic demand and the additional disruptions to global value chains driven by the Ukraine conflict.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Negative private consumption expectations in an environment of higher prices and higher critical employment conditions.
  • Formal employment shows strength at the beginning of the year, this allows us to maintain our perspective of employment creation. However, job insecurity is triggered by low-income jobs.
  • With inflation far from the target, Banxico will continue to raise rates; it will keep a restrictive stance during 2022-24.
  • Public debt will moderately increase in the medium term and will reach levels around 54% of GDP by 2026.

Associated documents for downloading

  • Report (EPUB) Editorial-Situacion-Mexico-2T22-BBVA-Research.epub Spanish April 20, 2022
  • Report (EPUB) Mexico-Economic-Outlook-2T22-BBVA-Research.epub English April 20, 2022
  • Report (PDF) SMX_2T22_DC_BBVA_Research.pdf Spanish April 12, 2022
  • Report (PDF) SMX_2T22_DC_EN_BBVA_Research.pdf English April 12, 2022
  • Presentation (PDF) SMX_2T22_SL_EN_BBVA_Research.pdf English April 12, 2022
  • Presentation (PDF) SMX_SL_2T22_BBVA_Research.pdf Spanish April 6, 2022

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