Mexico | Regional Sectoral Outlook Second Half 2025

Summary

Mexico's economy slowed by mid-2025. Growth in Q2 2025 was concentrated in primary activities (+4.5%) and services (+1.1%), while industry contracted (−1.3%). Services, particularly tourism and trade, drove stronger performances in CDMX and Baja California. The automotive sector saw declining exports due to new tariffs.

Key points

• Key points:
• Within services, several subsectors are growing at over 10% YoY; Leisure/Recreation stands out (+10.0% YoY in 2Q25) alongside a statistical rebound in Business Support Services, and momentum continues in Professional Services.
• The 2024 Economic Censuses show that only 25% of firms use IT and 26% have internet access; just 10.7% have access to credit (peaking at 22% in Nuevo León and 19% in Querétaro), with large gaps between the north and the south.
• Transportation Equipment (23.6% of Manufacturing GDP) shows a 2.1% contraction, and exports fall 3.8% in the first half of 2025; the domestic market is resilient, with automotive credit up 14.8% and rates falling; automotive FDI falls 27.8% due to trade uncertainty.
• The elasticity of manufacturing exports to the real exchange rate is low. Regional integration mitigates the effect of the exchange rate; competitiveness depends more on logistics, location, and linkages.
• Multiproduct apps operate as two-sided platforms: pricing/incentives, access rules, and anchor services (top-ups, bill payments, P2P) boost user recurrence and open up distribution for formal financial products.

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