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Industry is holding firm, investment is rising and the summer promises record growth in Spain, all of which has delayed the expected fall in GDP — at least until the end of September. Nonetheless, a number of factors continue to stoke fears of a recession.

In this presentation, we show the modeling strategy proposed by BBVA Research to identify bottleneck shocks, differentiate them from other supply-side shocks, and calculate their impacts on the European and Spanish economies.

The COVID-19 crisis has severely disrupted value chains. Not only during the onset, but also in recent months. In light of this, BBVA Research has significantly revised growth forecasts downward.

GMM and K-means allow us to produce classification systems to evaluate industry performance, analyze state economic resiliency, and assess MSA sustainability. Our industry classification system (ICS) helps identify common patterns and the impac…

A generalized fall, but still with opportunities. The sectoral structure has been maintained despite the economic contraction. Sectoral mix sets the tone for state performance.

Services decelerate and industry falls in 2019. Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast, USMCA will boost Bajío and North.

EZ GDP growth is expected to slow slightly further to 0.1% QoQ in 2H19. Available data so far show worsening exports, especially those to other EU countries, and industrial output. There are further signs on more moderate consumption and subdued investment despite improving labour market and favorable financing conditions.

Spain is not different. Just as in other developed countries, the country’s economy has shown a trend towards deindustrialisation and tertiarisation. Should this worry us? The authorities seem to be concerned.

Much research has documented a decline in the aggregate labor share in the United States and other countries. Yet, this is not a general phenomenon across industries. In fact, there has been a divergence between services and non-services indus…

The economy of Castile and Leon grew 1.9% in 2017 and GDP is expected to accelerate its growth to 2.5% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019. This will add around 35,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 9.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP wil…

Despite agents' expectations remaining positive, a negative adjustment in the components of both industry and consumer confidence is observed in January: the two indicators reduced their gap in regards to pre-crisis averages.

The agents' expectations are positive and show a widespread optimism in all components of both industrial and consumer confidence. Both indicators widened the gap with pre-crisis average and, in the case of consumers, the historical maximum has been reached. On balance, the 4T15 consolidated a year of positive expectations.