Portugal latest publications

December 12, 2019

Portugal | Recovery continues, but at more moderate rates

GDP growth in Portugal is expected to be slightly higher than estimated a few months ago. Specifically, GDP could reach 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. This upward revision is explained by the historical review of the activity data carried out by the INE and because of the positive trend shown by some components of demand.

July 22, 2019

Portugal | The 2019 and 2020 growth forecast is raised

Growth for 2019 and 2020 would stand at approximately 1.7%YoY, 2 pp above that previously estimated in both cases. In 2019, it is expected that the slowdown in consumption will be offset by the increase observed in investment, whilst next year, improved exports should continue against a backdrop of recovery of global demand

June 3, 2019

Portugal: orthodoxy, certainty and reward

A couple of years ago, the risk premium paid by the Portuguese 10-year government bond against its German counterpart was hovering between 350 and 400 basis points (bp). Meanwhile, the Spanish 10-year bond was paying between 100 and 125 bp.

May 24, 2019

Portugal economic outlook and its long-run challenges

Our GDP growth forecast for Portugal has been slightly revised downwards to 1.5% 2019. The Portuguese economy must successfully face many long-term challenges to seize the opportunities of the digital revolution

April 16, 2019

Portugal | Growth outlook for the two-year period revised down

After Portuguese GDP grew at an average rate of 2 .1% YoY during 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that its growth rate will moderate to around 1.5% in 2019. This scenario is in a context of a slowing global economy, particularly in Europe. Even so, the recovery will continue, supported by positive momentum in domestic demand, …

January 21, 2019

Portugal | Economic growth moderates in 2S18

BBVA Research estimates that growth in the Portuguese economy in 4Q18 was around 0.4% QoQ SWDA. Domestic demand will have continued to be the main support of activity, while the external sector’s contribution to growth will have remained negative. This would be consistent with BBVA Research’s forecast for Portugal’s GDP gro…

October 1, 2018

Portugal | Growth is upheld, but there are signs of a slowdown

Portuguese GDP grew 0.6% t/t in 2Q18, mainly due to the increase in gross capital formation and the improvement in the external sector, and despite the low growth of domestic final consumption. Based on the indicators available so far, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q18 will be approximately 0.3% QoQ SWDA.

June 21, 2018

Portugal | The slowdown in GDP growth continued in 2Q18

Portugal’s GDP grew by 0.4% QoQ in 1Q18, 0.3 pp less than the growth seen in the previous quarter and that forecast by BBVA Research. Domestic demand continues to grow strongly, in contrast with the recent weakness seen in exports, which have been affected by the reduced thrust of the euro zone economy. BBVA Research estima…