Portugal latest publications

April 28, 2021

Portugal Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2021

GDP contracted by 7.6% in 2020. Increased uncertainty about the spread of COVID-19 and the measures implemented to contain it weighed on activity. The economy is set to slow over the coming quarters and is expected to grow by 4.0% in 2021 and accelerate to 5.1% in 2022.

May 8, 2020

Portugal Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2020

In Portugal, GDP could fall by about 6.5% in 2020, and the unemployment rate could exceed 10%, although uncertainty is particularly high, especially in relation to the duration of the restrictions imposed and their impact on different sectors. There are many scenarios that are still possible under reasonable assumptions.

December 12, 2019

Portugal | Recovery continues, but at more moderate rates

GDP growth in Portugal is expected to be slightly higher than estimated a few months ago. Specifically, GDP could reach 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. This upward revision is explained by the historical review of the activity data carried out by the INE and because of the positive trend shown by some components of demand.

July 22, 2019

Portugal | The 2019 and 2020 growth forecast is raised

Growth for 2019 and 2020 would stand at approximately 1.7%YoY, 2 pp above that previously estimated in both cases. In 2019, it is expected that the slowdown in consumption will be offset by the increase observed in investment, whilst next year, improved exports should continue against a backdrop of recovery of global demand

June 3, 2019

Portugal: orthodoxy, certainty and reward

A couple of years ago, the risk premium paid by the Portuguese 10-year government bond against its German counterpart was hovering between 350 and 400 basis points (bp). Meanwhile, the Spanish 10-year bond was paying between 100 and 125 bp.

May 24, 2019

Portugal economic outlook and its long-run challenges

Our GDP growth forecast for Portugal has been slightly revised downwards to 1.5% 2019. The Portuguese economy must successfully face many long-term challenges to seize the opportunities of the digital revolution

April 16, 2019

Portugal | Growth outlook for the two-year period revised down

After Portuguese GDP grew at an average rate of 2 .1% YoY during 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that its growth rate will moderate to around 1.5% in 2019. This scenario is in a context of a slowing global economy, particularly in Europe. Even so, the recovery will continue, supported by positive momentum in domestic demand, …

January 21, 2019

Portugal | Economic growth moderates in 2S18

BBVA Research estimates that growth in the Portuguese economy in 4Q18 was around 0.4% QoQ SWDA. Domestic demand will have continued to be the main support of activity, while the external sector’s contribution to growth will have remained negative. This would be consistent with BBVA Research’s forecast for Portugal’s GDP gro…