Global | An uncertain but resilient balance

Summary

Over the past year, the global economy has once again shown that stability is always provisional. The economic policy measures of the U.S. administration, together with persistent geopolitical tensions, have substantially increased economic uncertainty.

Key points

• Key points:
• In this fast-moving environment, each year at BBVA Research we take a global look at what has happened over the previous twelve months in our Country Risk report.
• The rating cycle among credit rating agencies has been mostly positive in emerging economies, while in advanced economies it has shown mixed dynamics, with downgrades in the United States and France and upgrades in the European periphery.
• Overall, 2025 showed some improvement in vulnerabilities, with stronger growth and lower inflation. However, the global picture conceals the existence of localized imbalances: rising global public debt and increasing housing prices across multiple regions.
• Beyond economic indicators that may be more or less cyclical, the deeper shift is the resurgence of structural geopolitical risk. In 2025, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Iran, and Eastern Europe concentrated the highest levels of structural geopolitical risk.
• The war that has erupted in Iran in recent days illustrates the extent to which conflicts in the Middle East can become sources of systemic risk.

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