Global | Market resilience: Reality or illusion?

Summary

The strength of the financial markets is surprising. Despite geopolitical, commercial and fiscal risks, global stock markets and credit have reached new highs, generating complacency. What sustains markets in the face of adverse macroeconomic and geopolitical logic?

Key points

• Key points:
• The first source of concern comes from the commercial front. The United States' tariff policy has taken an abrupt turn, with the average effective tariff rising from 2.8% to levels close to 16.6%.
• Added to this is a geopolitical environment that continues to be very unstable.
• Likewise, the U.S. economy shows clear signs of moderation, with a loss of dynamism in consumption and employment.
• A sensitive issue is the institutional credibility of the Fed. Although its mandate is clear (price stability and full employment), political pressures raise doubts about its independence.
• That said, the current resilience of the market is explained by solid business fundamentals, favorable monetary expectations and technological attractiveness. However, this ability to ignore systemic risks can be dangerous if maintained.

Geographies

Topics

Tags