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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 23 June 2017

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Highlights: The Council of Ministers issued a Royal Decree Law creating a senior non-preferred debt instrument to comply with MREL in Spain. The European Council endorsed the procedure to determine the new location of the EU agencies post-brexit. The EBA published the rules to grant access to ELA. The FED published the results to the Stress Test.

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Financial Education, Financial Inclusion and National Strategies

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Mapping financial education, financial inclusion and national strategies. The Multidimensional Index of Financial Inclusion. Measuring the interaction of financial literacy, national strategies and financial inclusion.

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 16 June 2017

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Highlights: Council agreement on creditor hierarchy, IFRS9 and large exposures. U.S. Treasury publishes report on financial regulation, EC proposes amendments to EMIR in relation to Central Counterparties, ECB publishes Macroprudential bulletin and a memorandum of understanding with the Office of Financial Research.

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Global | The recovery shows signs of stabilisation

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Global GDP growth continues to improve in Q2 (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) but with signs of stabilization. Confidence data remain very strong, but are levelling off and the upward trend in exports and industrial output has moderated at the beginning of Q2. Moreover, the latest data suggest that positive signs are shifting from the US and China to Europe and other emerging economies

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2017

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Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and sovereign markets spreads have been decreasing for over a year, reaching lows not seen since the spring of 2014 or 2007. Most of the large sovereign spread’s increases seen during the turmoil in 2015 and 2016 in EMs has vanished

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - May 2017 Update

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Tensions surrounding the North Korean nuclear test program remained in the spotlight becoming one of the main US foreign policy concerns. The US announced its support for the Syrian Kurdish in the fight against ISIS. The campaign to seize Raqqa is accelerating. Recent peace talks in Syria as well as the “de-escalation zone” agreement reduced conflict intensity in May.

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 26 May 2017

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Highlights: FSB publishes recommendations to strengthen the governance of financial institutions, analysing whether reforms have reduced misconduct. The FSB and the BIS published a joint report on the increase in the provision of credit by FinTech platforms. The ECB published its financial stability report, highlighting issues of macroprudential policy.

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Spain Economic outlook with a view on the real estate sector

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The world economy continues to improve, albeit within an environment in which risks are still present. In Spain, current activity trends confirm that growth remains strong. We expect GDP growth to remain around 3,0% in 2017 and 2018 (2,7%). Housing demand is picking up, as prices have stabilized or even increased significantly in certain regions.

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Global growth is still gaining momentum in 2Q17, but there are some signs of stabilisation

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Global growth accelerated in 1Q to 0.9% QoQ and 2Q data so far suggest further global momentum (1% QoQ). Confidence data remain very positive, especially for developed economies, while hard data point to higher investment. Moreover, the exports recovery remains on track, partly explained by upward trend in investment in recent quarters.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - April 2017 Update

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Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS. The US supported the YPG's advance in Raqqa.

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U.S. | Risks and Opportunities in Climate Change

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The world economy is transitioning to a carbon-free paradigm triggered by the potentially disastrous effects of climate change. In the following years, vast amounts of capital will be allocated to mitigation and adaptation projects. With the right strategy, the opportunities for the banking industry could outweigh the risks

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Available in Spanish, English

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Digital Economy Outlook - April 2017

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In this issue we will focus on: digital platforms: economic features and policy challenges; fostering a data-driven economy in the EU; licensing Fintech companies: authorities trying a balance between fostering innovation and financial stability; behavioural biometrics, a step further in digital identification; the governance of technology in the digital world

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Global | Positive dynamics lead to an upward revision in projections

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Global GDP growth maintains its positive trend in 1H17 as our BBVA-GAIN indicator suggests (close to 1% QoQ). Confidence and global trade continue to point a further expansion, but signals given by hard data are not yet clear. New projections for 2017-18 are revised upwards in China, more moderately in EZ, with no changes in the US.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - March 2017 Update

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After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

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