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Mexico | Business loans continue to be the main source of bank credit expansion

By , ,

In October 2018, the nominal annual growth rate of the balance of the current loan portfolio granted by commercial banks to the private sector was 11.8% (6.5% real). This rate was greater to the previous month (11.2%) and lower than the same month of 2017 (12.5%).

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Policy priorities to promote financial development in the context of Middle Income Trap

By , , , ,

This paper analyses the development of financial markets in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and Peru in the context of the middle-income trap. This is particularly relevant for these economies, since well-developed and properly-functioning financial markets are fundamental to achieve high income status on a sustainable basis.

Available in English

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Mexico | Remittances continue to grow,increasing by 3.4% YoY to US$2.94 billion in October

By ,

October was the 31st consecutive month of positive year-on-year growth in remittances, with a total of US$2.94 billion being sent to Mexico, representing year-on-year growth of 3.4%.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Five social & labour programmes from the 2nd consultation would cost 0.85% of GDP

By , , ,

Although the consultation indicates that the new refinery in Dos Bocas will cost 50 billion pesos (0.22% of GDP), we consider that it refers only to the first stage, since the incoming Secretary of Energy, Rocío Nahle, estimated that it would cost 160 billion pesos (0.69% of GDP) and would be completed in 3 years.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Traditional bank deposits moderate their performance

By , ,

In September 2018, the nominal annual growth rate of traditional deposits (demand + term) of commercial banks was 8.8% (3.6% real), lower than the previous month (11.5%) and also than the nominal growth rate registered in September 2017 (10.8%).

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | Stable debt to GDP ratio in 2019 with a minimum primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP

By ,

The stabilization of public debt as a share of GDP is one of the goals that the incoming federal public administration has set out to reach. Keeping the historical balance of PSBR stable around 46.5% of GDP in 2019, ceteris paribus, will be possible if the federal government achieves a minimum primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Business loans continue to be the main source of bank credit expansion

By , ,

In September 2018, the nominal annual growth rate of the balance of the current loan portfolio granted by commercial banks to the private sector was 11.2% (5.9% real). This rate was equal to the previous month and lower than the same month of 2017 (12.2%).

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. November 2018

By , , , , , , , ,

Among the various types of risk that the financial system is currently facing is that of cyber-attacks. The national producer price index for the construction sector increased by 8.1% in the third quarter of 2018, but we expect that at year-end 2019 the increase will have slowed to below 5% on an annual basis.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Real Estate Outlook. Second half 2018

By , ,

The GDP of construction closed 2017 with a fall of 1.1% in the annual rate. This is a result of the 10% decline in civil works and the slowdown in building that only improved 0.4%, both in annual terms. However, for the second quarter of 2018, the construction sector has an accumulated advance of 2%.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Inflation is on a clear downward trend as expected

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Headline inflation increased 0.61% FoF in the first fortnight of November, with a slightly higher-than-anticipated 0.19% FoF rise in core inflation.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | 1H November CPI HoH forecast: annual headline inflation likely to drop further

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We expect a headline inflation print of 0.65% HoH in the first fortnight of November, translating into a 4.60% YoY number, and core inflation to post an increase of 0.15% HoH, 3.59% YoY.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Banxico hikes 25bp to 8.00% and stays hawkish

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One board member voted for a 50bp hike. Risks are now tilted to an additional 25bp hike in December but the call will most likely dependent of the 2019 fiscal budget outcome and its effect on confidence.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish

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Banxico to hike 25bp to 8.00% with higher uncertainty and risks

By ,

Our call is based on MPC’s hawkish forward guidance and the materialization of some risks, especially a weaker MXN. A lot has changed in the intermeeting period and in our view a hike is warranted. We are not expecting an additional hike in December for now, but will depend on the MXN performance which will most likely be driven by the fiscal budget outcome.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Remittances powering ahead, up by 8.8% YoY in September, 30 months of growth

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The US unemployment rate in September was 3.7%, its lowest level for nearly fifty years, favouring employment of Mexican immigrants and remittances to Mexico. Employment of the population of Hispanic origin in the US continues its rising trend, surpassing 27 million people in employment in September.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | NAIM survey and outcome: unnecessary self-inflicted damage

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Confidence is damaged as the moderates within the upcoming government lost a key battle.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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