Global | A scenario of uncertain equilibrium

Summary

In recent months, the main feature of the global economic outlook has been the increase in uncertainty. The erratic tariff policy of the American administration and the lack of precedent for recent protectionist shocks have made reading the economic outlook complicated.

Key points

• Key points:
• In principle, the United States seems to be the most exposed country, for the simple fact that tariff changes affect a large part of its imports.
• Assuming final tariffs close to current levels, U.S. GDP could grow by 1.7% this year and 2% in 2026, less than previously anticipated.
• China, for its part, is in a more favorable situation after seeing tariff threats reduced. Even so, Chinese products face a 30% tariff.
• However, thanks to the support of stimulus policies, it could now grow above 4.5% in 2025 and 2026.
• Europe will take a little longer than others to reach a trade deal with the United States, and the direct impact of tariffs may be mitigated by the expected fiscal stimulus in Germany and Europe as a whole. The Eurozone is expected to maintain a growth rate of approximately 1% over the next two years.

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