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This presentation reviews recent events related to the global economy, as well as forecasts focusing on Mexico, highlighting the most likely scenario, which is greater integration with the US.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a (-)0.3% month-on-month (MoM) decline in September, reflecting contractions in both goods and services segments.

Mexico's economy slowed by mid-2025. Growth in Q2 2025 was concentrated in primary activities (+4.5%) and services (+1.1%), while industry contracted (−1.3%). Services, particularly tourism and trade, drove stronger performances in CDMX and Baja California. The automotive sector saw declining exports due to new tariffs.

Construction GDP contracted by 1.1% in the first half of 2025, driven by a 24.6% decline in Civil Works. The mortgage market shrank by 9.2% , affected by a weak labor market and rising housing prices.

In the midst of a year of global uncertainty, both due to economic and geopolitical factors, Latam has shown a particular resilience that has manifested itself in the appreciation of its currencies and the reduction of its risk premiums.

During the first eight months of 2025, remittances accumulated a flow of 40,467 million dollars, while in the same months of 2024 they had already reached 43,001 million dollars, representing a decrease of 5.9%.

The Board noted that “economic activity exhibited sluggishness at the beginning of the third quarter of 2025,” in line with the July’s IGAE print released yesterday, which showed a broad-based 0.9% m/m contraction across all major sectors.