Publications

The ECB cut rates to 2% with broad consensus and signaled the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end. While confident in the inflation path, high geopolitical and trade uncertainty keeps future decisions open,

The Big Data Private Consumption Index recorded a yoy growth of 15.6% in May, exceeding the figures from April (11.6%) and March (10.9%).

Consumer inflation rose by 1.53% m/m, lower than both our expectation (1.8%) and the market consensus (2.0%), driving annual inflation down to 35.4%. We evaluate that the balance of risks on our 31% year-end inflation forecast become slightly tilted to the downside, depending on the overall stance of the policy mix.

Castilla-La Mancha's GDP could have increased by 3.4% in 2024 (Spain 3.2%). Regional GDP is expected to increase by 2.8% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could fall to 11.6% on average in 2026 and 40,000 new jobs could be created in the 2025-2026 biennium.

In May 2025, the CPI fell by 0.06%, mainly due to lower food prices, particularly poultry products, following previous increases. Electricity rates and fuel prices also declined, reflecting lower international oil prices.

Amid a proposal to create a special tax in the United States on remittances sent abroad, the Bank of Mexico announced the amount of remittances sent to Mexico in April 2025, which was $4,761.2 million.

The tariff hikes being pushed through by the United States since the start of Donald Trump's second term are genuinely unprecedented. Not in the last century have we witnessed such a sudden and erratic shift in trade policiy implemented within such a short space of time.

According to the latest Quarterly Labor Market Observatory, published by BBVA Research and FEDEA, Spain's labor market continues to exhibit strong job creation, although persistent imbalances necessitate structural reforms. Employment growth must translate into greater productivity and equity.