Publications

We identify the main drivers of key financial market asset price dynamics, including the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the Bund-US Treasury yield spread, using a sign-restricted SVAR model. The model also facilitates the extraction of a high frequency global macro-financial conditions indicator.

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

China’s banks face headwinds in 2025 amid weak credit growth, low profitability, and property sector stress. Narrowing interest margins and declining lending rates have pushed ROA and ROE to record lows. Real estate woes, LGFV debt, and US tariffs weigh heavily on the sector, while links to shadow banking grown modestly.

Amid the China-US trade war, we still raised our China 2025 and 2026 GDP forecast due to the jumbo size stimulus package, the new growth engine high-end manufacturing to support growth and lower-than-expected tariff imposed.

The "two sessions" will discuss the most important issues ranging from the summary of last year economic achievements, to the announcement of 2025 key economic targets; from the continuation of the jumbo size stimulus package to outlining the blueprint of “Chinese-style modernization” with focus on high-end manufacturing.

The RMB is steadily growing as an international currency, with rising use in payments, trade finance, investment, and reserves. However, it still lags behind the USD and EUR. Factors like geopolitical shifts, financial market reforms, and alternative payment systems (CIPS) continue to shape its trajectory.

In this paper, we analyze what could go wrong in implementing the current jumbo size stimulus package to the Chinese economy and how to avoid these traps.

Diverging monetary policy between China and the US remains after Trump’s victory, leading to a longer time China-US policy rate reversion.