Publications

The GDP growth forecast has been revised upward across the board for 2025 and 2026. The revision is due to the resilience of economic activity, especially exports of both goods and services, as well as investment playing a more important role in the recovery than previously thought.

Galicia's GDP could have grown by 3.3% in 2024, and is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Going forward, the economy's development will be marked by the weak performance of the industrial sector, high uncertainty regarding economic and tariff policies, and the slow recovery in Europe.

Tourism and consumption continue to drive growth toward the Mediterranean and the islands in 2025, but the prospect of a slowdown persists toward 2026 in a context of high uncertainty that delays the acceleration of export-producing regions.

In 2024, growth is revised upwards due to the boost in domestic consumption and tourism. The end of the drought, the improvement of the European economy, and the reduction of interest rates will help sustain growth, affected by the impact of the dana and possible changes in tariff policy in the US.

In 2024, prospects will improve, with service exporting communities benefiting most, while stagnant exports limit the progress of many industrial regions. In 2025, growth moderates and shifts to areas with less tourism weight.

Climate is a relevant factor in the choice of a tourist destination. Changes in climate conditions could alter the seasonal and geographical pattern of tourism in Spain, with the impact depending on the adaptation policies implemented.

In 2024, the Spanish economy presents a heterogeneous outlook, with different autonomous communities showing significant variations in their growth prospects. In this quarter's BBVA Research Regional Economic Outlook report we explore the most relevant economic trends and challenges for this year and next.