Publications

The national unemployment rate for May 2025 was 9.0%, lower than 10.3% a year ago and the lowest for a May in the last 24 years. Seasonally adjusted, the rate showed a decreasing trend between June 2024 and April 2025 and was around 9% in the March-May 2025 period.

The CPI rose by 0,13% m/m in June, broadly in line with analysts’ consensus. As a result, year-on-year inflation remained at 1,7%, comfortably within the Central Bank’s target range. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, on the other hand, declined and also stood at 1,7%.

Global uncertainty, especially on geopolitical and commercial issues, has been creating a complex and atypical environment for Latin America in 2025. This has led to high market volatility, caution from monetary policy, and broader than normal ranges when forecasting economic variables.

The Bank of the Republic maintained the policy rate at 9.25% in June, with a divided decision. While inflation showed a marginal reduction and growth continues a gradual recovery, they emphasized the larger estimated fiscal deficit and its effect on the economy and the Bank's interest rate profile.

We identify the main drivers of key financial market asset price dynamics, including the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the Bund-US Treasury yield spread, using a sign-restricted SVAR model. The model also facilitates the extraction of a high frequency global macro-financial conditions indicator.

Despite trade tensions, Peru’s economy is expected to grow by 3,1% this year, supported by record-high terms of trade, improved business confidence, and the construction of new copper mines. Output growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2026, to around 2,7%, mainly due to increased electoral uncertainty.

Countries in the region, like Colombia, are developing open finance frameworks. To achieve innovation, competition, and inclusion, it's essential to modernize payments, establish governance that fosters participation, and create robust systems that protect information and customer trust.

At its June meeting, the Central Bank’s Board decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%. The monetary policy stance, measured by the ex-ante real reference rate, remains around neutral.