Publications

The Colombian economy will grow by 2.5% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, driven by domestic demand while investment begins a gradual recovery. Sticky inflation and fiscal challenges will condition the pace of interest rate cuts by the Central Bank.

After more than 25 years of negotiations, Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay) and European Union (EU) reached an association agreement in December 2024— a turning point in the history of both regions. It is currently undergoing legal review, and a provisional implementation is expected by the beginning of 2026.

The Central Bank’s Board decided in September to reduce the policy interest rate from 4.50% to 4.25%. With this, the rate in real terms stands at 2.07%. It emphasized that the current rate is very close to the estimated neutral level.

Colombia’s housing market has entered a recovery phase. Building permits have increased and the market-rate (No VIS) segment shows renewed momentum. New-home price appreciation is running below CPI. A persistent housing deficit underpins demand, while the social housing (VIS) segment retains an inventory overhang.

The article analyzes the dangers of political interference in central bank decisions, in reference to the recent actions of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and his attack on the institutional framework of the Federal Reserve.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index recorded a YoY increase of 7,2% in August, reflecting a significant acceleration compared to the more moderate growth observed in the previous two months (2.3% y/y in July and 3.0% y/y in June).

The Lima Consumer Price Index (CPI) contracted 0.29% in August 2025, surprising the consensus of analysts. Year-on-year inflation fell to 1.1%, close to the lower limit of the Central Bank's target range. Inflation excluding food and energy rose slightly to 1.8%.

Colombia’s national unemployment rate in July 2025 stood at 8.8%, down from 9.9% a year earlier and the lowest for a July in the past 24 years. Employment remained at high levels, driven by wage jobs in private companies. The sectors that generated the most jobs were Accommodation and Food Services, and Transportation.