Publications

Growth remains solid, but in a context of deceleration. In 2025, services exports remain the main growth driver. In 2026, the impact of tariffs and the slowdown in non-resident consumption will lead to a moderation in growth.

In 2024, Madrid' GDP could have grown by 3.1%, and is expected to increase by 2.8% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. This strength is attributed to the robust performance of the services sector, particularly in tourism, as well as the domestic demand, where consumer spending has been increasing its weight.

In 2024, growth is revised upwards due to the boost in domestic consumption and tourism. The end of the drought, the improvement of the European economy, and the reduction of interest rates will help sustain growth, affected by the impact of the dana and possible changes in tariff policy in the US.

In 2024, prospects will improve, with service exporting communities benefiting most, while stagnant exports limit the progress of many industrial regions. In 2025, growth moderates and shifts to areas with less tourism weight.

The GDP of Madrid could increase by 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, which would allow the creation of 183,000 new jobs in the region over the biennium.

In 2024, the Spanish economy presents a heterogeneous outlook, with different autonomous communities showing significant variations in their growth prospects. In this quarter's BBVA Research Regional Economic Outlook report we explore the most relevant economic trends and challenges for this year and next.

In 2024, the prospects will improve in all the Autonomous Communities, driven by employment, domestic consumption and, above all, service exports. In 2025, the push will come from the industrial communities and the recovery of the south after the drought, with tourist communities losing momentum.

GDP growth in 2024 is revised downwards for all peninsular regions. Greater corrections in the northern regions, but they will lead growth in 2024. In 2025, a general acceleration due to the improvement in domestic consumption and European demand: advantage for national tourism recipients.