Publications

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru maintained the interest rate at 4.25%, in line with expectations. Despite the inflationary rebound in March caused by supply shocks, the institution projects that inflation will return to the target range by the end of this year amid positive growth prospects.

The Big Data Consumption Indicator showed a year-on-year expansion of 13.2 % in March, recording a slowdown compared to 18.7 % in February due to the lower momentum of pension fund withdrawals and price increases.

Economic activity grew 3.5% year-on-year in January 2026, in line with the consensus, driven by non-primary GDP, particularly construction and commerce.

In March, the BCRP kept its rate at 4.25% for the sixth straight month, as expected by the market. Higher inflation reflects three transitory supply shocks. Monitoring inflation expectations will be key to sustaining the current neutral stance.

The Private Consumption Big Data Index showed a moderation in February 2026, although it maintained a significant year-on-year expansion of 18.4%. This dynamism is supported by greater liquidity from pension withdrawals, consumer credit, and the strength of the labor market.

Lima's CPI rose 0.69% m/m in February, well above consensus (0.23%). Annual inflation reached 2.2%, surpassing the target midpoint for the first time in over a year, driven by higher food prices, particularly poultry and vegetables, and a residential water tariff adjustment.

In February, the BCRP kept the rate at 4.25% for the fifth straight month. This move, expected by the market, reflects a neutral stance with activity near potential and inflation converging to the midpoint of the target range. We expect the rate to stay at this level in the coming months.