Publications

In December the BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25%, surprising part of the market. The more hawkish tone of the statement and the improved macro environment support the view that policy is already neutral and that further rate cuts are unlikely.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index grew by 16.7% YoY in November, showing a strong acceleration compared to previous months (7.7% in October, 10.5% in September).

CPI rose 0.11% m/m in November, driven by higher prices in food, restaurants and transport. Despite the monthly increase, annual inflation remained stable at 1.4%, within the Central Bank’s target range.

In September, economic activity grew by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg’s consensus forecast of 3.5%. The primary sector expanded by 5.2%, driven by mining and fishing, while the non-primary component grew by 3.5%, with notable contributions from construction, trade, and services.

The Big Data Index of Private Consumption continues to show notable dynamism at the beginning of the fourth quarter: in October, it increased by 7.7% YoY.

Lima’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.10% m/m in October. Despite the decline—driven by lower prices in communications, food, and energy—annual inflation remained virtually stable at 1.4% compared to September, within the Central Bank’s target range.

Peru faces another political crisis following the presidential vacancy, reflecting recurrent instability since 2017. Although the financial impact was limited, uncertainty is weighing on investment, consumption, and growth. Institutional reforms are urgently needed to strengthen governance and economic stability.