Publications

Presentation at the "Macroeconomics in Action" conference at Universidad del Pacífico. It addresses Peru’s economic outlook in a context of global change, highlighting external challenges, domestic growth drivers, and economic policy perspectives for the 2025–2026 period.

Peru faces another political crisis following the presidential vacancy, reflecting recurrent instability since 2017. Although the financial impact was limited, uncertainty is weighing on investment, consumption, and growth. Institutional reforms are urgently needed to strengthen governance and economic stability.

The article explains how artificial intelligence transforms the economy by automating household and market tasks, creating value not captured by GDP. It calls for updated economic metrics to better measure well-being and productivity in the digital age.

Following the 25bp cut in September, the Central Bank maintained its policy rate at 4,25 % in October. The virtually neutral stance of monetary policy is consistent with the benign inflation outlook and economic activity around its potential. We keep expecting the policy rate to remain at 4,25 % in the coming months.

In the midst of a year of global uncertainty, both due to economic and geopolitical factors, Latam has shown a particular resilience that has manifested itself in the appreciation of its currencies and the reduction of its risk premiums.

Lima’s CPI rose 0.01% m/m in September. Lower prices for rents, electricity, cars, fuels, airfares, and poultry products contained inflation. On an annual basis, inflation increased from 1.1% in August to 1.4% in September, due to a low comparison base.

GDP grew 3.4% year-on-year in July, above market consensus (3.0%) but below June’s pace. The primary component expanded by about 5.0%, while the non-primary component grew around 3.0%.