Most recent posts from Peru

Peru's economic activity grew 3.2% year-on-year in August, led by non-primary sectors (+4.3%), such as construction and commerce. In contrast, primary sectors contracted by 1.2%, affected by the decline in fishing and mining. Between January and August, GDP accumulated an expansion of 3.1%.

The coastal El Niño has already reached extraordinary intensity, and forecasts indicate that these conditions will persist until early 2027. Against this backdrop, we estimate that the adverse impact of weather anomalies will reduce economic growth by 0,9 percentage points in 2026 and 1,3 percentage points in 2027.

GDP is expected to grow by 2.9% in both 2026 and 2027. Despite the effects that El Niño is already having on growth, private investment and non-extractive sectors will continue to support economic activity. A strong rebound is expected in 2028.

Peru's Big Data Private Consumption Index grew 9.3% year-on-year in September, above the historical average. This progress occurs in a context of high inflation (4.5%) that affects purchasing power; however, consumer credit and labor market are providing support.

El Niño generates heterogeneous impacts across South America, affecting Argentina, Colombia, and Peru. Climate change intensifies these extreme events. Given the uncertainty, it is vital to conduct granular analyses and strengthen the capacity to adapt to climate change.

El Niño 2026–27 could be exceptional, but its impact will not depend on intensity alone: local climate conditions, timing, and sectoral exposure will be key. Granular analysis can help anticipate risks, while adaptation can mitigate their effects

The rise of extortion in Peru is analyzed as an efficient criminal market: high profits, near-total impunity, and low opportunity costs for criminals. This phenomenon, driven by informality and institutional weakness, negatively impacts the national economy by 3.1% of GDP.