Publications

Employment is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2026, while the unemployment rate is projected to decline to 10% on an annual average basis. If these projections materialize, the Spanish economy would have generated more than 1.5 million jobs over the 2024–2026 period.

Regional convergence in per capita income in Spain had advanced for decades but stalled since the Global Financial Crisis. The halt in productivity convergence and its growing correlation with employment and participation explain the persistence of territorial inequalities.

The Spanish economy is growing more through employment than productivity. The efficient allocation of resources (capital and labor) to more productive sectors is one of the structural challenges. There's an urgent need to boost investment, human capital, and AI, and remove barriers for the most productive companies to grow.

The share of goods exports in Spain’s GDP has declined since the pandemic, while tourism and other exportable services have gained prominence. The challenge is to harness this potential without undermining industrial competitiveness, by anchoring it in productivity, investment, and human capital.

Bank credit to firms returned to growth in 2025 after years of contraction, supported by lower interest rates, deleveraging, and a recovery in investment. The pace of expansion is moderate and uneven across sectors, with services and industry leading the improvement.

This presentation examines Spain’s structural productivity gap, linked to the small average size of firms and to lower levels of investment and human capital. Under these conditions, artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as a key lever, provided complementary reforms and investments accompany it.

Public administrations have awarded contracts and grants equivalent to 75% of the planned investments financed with transfers from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (3.6% of GDP). However, the pace of implementation has slowed, and it will need to be accelerated to meet the planned deadlines and objectives.