Publications

For a second straight meeting, the Fed held rates steady last week at a 3.50-3.75% target range, flagging renewed inflation risks tied to the Middle East conflict—now priced in by markets through higher medium- and long-term yields.

This Agenda presents the 2026 dissemination schedule for economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events in Mexico and the US; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Economic Forum, World Bank and the IMF

The FOMC will most likely keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% while conveying a cautious approach in light of renewed risks; we do not expect a meaningful change in the median rate projection, even if inflation forecasts move somewhat higher.

The balance of 2025 showed economic resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions, supported by lower inflation and investment. The war in the Middle East is a supply shock, whose impact will depend on how long it lasts and how oil prices evolve.

This year, the trade agreement between Mexico, the United States, and Canada (USMCA) enters its review process. It is worth recalling that the agreement is in force until 2036, but it includes a review mechanism beginning July 1 that could lead to different scenarios.

Over the past year, the global economy has once again shown that stability is always provisional. The economic policy measures of the U.S. administration, together with persistent geopolitical tensions, have substantially increased economic uncertainty.

On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6–3 decision, ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to unilaterally impose broad-based tariffs. The decision struck down most “reciprocal” and emergency tariffs.