Publications

Powell described today’s move as “a risk-management cut,” with rising downside risks to the employment mandate making it appropriate to resume “moving in the direction of neutral.”

With a 25bp cut widely expected, the key question is whether the Fed will frame it as a fine-tuning of its current moderately restrictive stance or as a renewed easing cycle toward a more neutral stance.

Three developments shaped the Treasury market over the past month: a weak jobs report, a dovish tone from Powell at Jackson Hole, and renewed political pressure stemming from Trump’s push to replace Governor Lisa Cook from the Fed’s Board.

July U.S. labor data show sharp hiring slowdown: 73k jobs added, prior months revised -258k, jobless rate at 4.2%, participation at 62.2%. Wage growth stagnates; health care sole driver. Market sees 89% odds of Fed rate cut in September.

The Yearbook of Migration and Remittances Mexico 2025 reaffirms the ongoing commitment of BBVA Research, BBVA Foundation and CONAPO to present a rigorous and informative work on the main national and international trends surrounding migration and remittance flows.

Since recovering in 2014, the flow of remittances to Mexico has experienced a streak of 11 consecutive years of growth, which will most likely end in 2025. Between 2013 and 2024, remittances increased in nominal terms from $23 billion to $64.7 billion; that is, they almost tripled.

A rate cut in September remains a possibility if the labor market proves to be "on the edge" and weakens sharply, but that seems unlikely at this point. For now, "we have a long way to go to really understand exactly how [the tariff-related inflationary effect] will be."

We expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting and do not anticipate growing dovish support. The uncertainty over the end level of tariffs and its inflation impact, along with a still solid labor market, give the Fed room to wait.