Publications

After 11 consecutive years of expansion in remittances, a period in which these funds nearly tripled, the end of this growth streak is confirmed for 2025. Last year, Mexico received 61,791 million USD in family remittances, a figure that represents a 4.6% year-on-year decrease.

The AI race is rapidly accelerating across all its dimensions. It is no longer just about software and models, but also about the infrastructure that makes them possible.

In 2026, the World Cup, the USMCA review, and ties with the U.S. will place Mexico under global scrutiny. Tourism will be the first test: the visitor experience will determine whether the impact is fleeting or structurally transformative.

The FOMC will likely continue to emphasize optionality and data dependence as possible inflationary pressures from tariffs could have been masked thus far by import frontloading and the offsetting cooling of shelter inflation.

Starting January 1, 2026, remittances sent in cash, money orders, and cashier's checks from the United States will be subject to a 1% tax on the total amount.

Elevated term premia likely driven by fiscal and institutional risks keep long-end yields high despite stable inflation expectations. Outside isolated episodes of turbulence, markets have reflected favorable conditions over the year and throughout the easing cycle.

The outlook for the global economy in the second half of the year is proving more positive than expected around April, when the protectionist shock from the US economy materialized.