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In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter. This growth was due to domestic demand, which managed to offset the decline in external demand. During this period, there was a significant increase in employment and a decrease in productivity.

Upward revisions in growth forecasts for the Spanish economy have multiplied recently. The feared slowdown that was expected has not occurred.

Adjusted for seasonality (SA), employment grew by 0.4% q/q in the third quarter, slightly less than in the previous one. Hours worked increased (0.7% q/q), while both temporary employment (15.1% SA) and unemployment rates (10.5% SA) continued to decline.

The GDP growth forecast has been revised upward across the board for 2025 and 2026. The revision is due to the resilience of economic activity, especially exports of both goods and services, as well as investment playing a more important role in the recovery than previously thought.

After more than a decade of deleveraging, the Spanish banking system has changed phases. In 2024, the credit balance to the resident private sector turned positive again, with contributions from both households and businesses, and this trend continued into the first months of 2025.

Social Security affiliation increased by 31,500 people and unemployment fell by 4,800 in September. Adjusted for seasonality (SA), the number of contributors is estimated to have risen by 47,000, while the number of unemployed decreased by 22,000. In 3Q25, employment grew by 0.5% QoQ (SA) and unemployment dropped by 1.1%.

The advance of the regional GDP of 2024 published today by the INE is in line with the estimates of BBVA Research, which expected the growth to be led by Murcia and the island regions.